1 Introduction to Probability

Probability Space (Ω,F,P)

  • Ω is some space, representing the set of all outcomes.
  • F is a σ algebra (σ field) on Ω, representing a set of subsets of Ω satisfying certain properties.
  • P is probability measure.

σ algebra of Measurable Sets

Given a set S, FP(S) is called a σ algebra on S if

  • ,SF;
  • AFAcF;
  • (Closed under countable union) AiF,iNi=1AiF.

AF is called F measurable.

Examples

F={,S}; F=P(S). They are respectively smallest/largest σ algebra.

Measurable Space, Measure

(S,F) (F is a σ algebra on S) is a measurable space.
A non-negative set function μ:F[0,] is called a measure on (S,F), if

  • μ()=0;
  • AiF,iN s.t. AiAj=. If ij, μ(i=1Ai)=i=1μ(Ai).
  1. (S,F,μ) is called a measure space.
  2. If μ(S)=1, μ is called a probability measure, often denoted by P.
  3. Specifying (S,F) constrains the possible measure that can be defined on it. See example below.
Example

Consider a measure λ on (R,P(R)) satisfying

  • λ([a,b])=ba,b>a;
  • λ(x+A)=λ(A),xR,AP(R).

Then VP(R) for which λ(V) cannot be defined consistently, like Vitally set. I.e. not Lebesgue measurable.
For example, consider a unit ball BR3 and drop a point x u.a.r on B. For any subset AB, we can't define P(xA)=Volume(A)43π. By Banach-Tarski Theorem, some AP(B) are not Lebesgue measurable.